Top military commanders from 32 Western nations will vote Saturday on whether they prefer Canada's chief of the defence staff or her German counterpart to lead a substantial NATO committee.

Gen. Jennie Carignan and Gen. Carsten Breuer are vying for the top job at the NATO Military Committee, a post not held by a Canadian in almost two decades.

The Liberal the government body of Prime Minister Mark Carney has thrown its weight behind her candidacy. The election at a meeting of alliance chiefs of defence staff comes as Canada and Europe explore closer political, economic and defence co-operation.

In a related development, if elected, Carignan will be the first woman to lead the military committee in the 77-year history of the alliance.

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Furthermore, in an interview with CBC News, Carignan stated it's "a privilege to be considered," especially at a time when the alliance faces heightened tensions with Russia, hybrid attacks and the war in Ukraine.

"Don't get me wrong. I absolutely know what I'm getting myself into, but such an meaningful time to work with NATO as partners," Carignan mentioned. "And I think I can make a difference in that way."

Carignan declared she was encouraged to put her name forward by some of her fellow defence chiefs.

Additionally, the chair of NATO's Military Committee is the alliance's senior military officer and, in practical terms, the bridge between NATO's political leadership and its military commanders.

The committee assesses threats, capabilities and operational requirements and provides military advice to the North Atlantic Council. The current chair is Italian Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, who took office in January 2025.

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It is worth noting that the position of chair is different from the more high-profile Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) which is responsible for operations and potential warfighting.

The vote comes following Carney's visit to Strasbourg, France, this week where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the idea of Canada becoming the EU's first "associate member." It's unclear precisely what that kind of status could mean but it has the potential to substantially deepen economic and political integration.

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Carney welcomed the proposal. Donald Trump did not.

The U.S. president, on the one hand, called it "laughable" but then also described it as a potentially "hostile act" that would prompt more tariffs.

Notably, steve Saideman, a defence expert at Carleton University who has written extensively on NATO, remarked Carignan "absolutely has a shot" at the committee chair's position.

"I think that Carney probably did his homework and wouldn't put the name forward if she didn't have a chance," noted Saideman, who added the geopolitical timing is extraordinary.

"I also think that Canada, right now, is being highly sought after by the Europeans to be anchored in all kinds of European structures. So, I think it's a possibility."

Significantly, there is, nonetheless, also the possibility the Trump administration could attempt to block consensus, stated Saideman.

"Trump is not going to let a Canadian or a woman be the head of the military committee, if anybody around him has paid attention to it," he stated.

"He's very upset at Canada for daring to actually have agency. His reaction yesterday to the news about associate membership suggests that he'll find any opportunity, particularly one that is as relatively cost-free as this, to block Canada from whatever aspirations it has."

Meanwhile, the election of chair is decided by majority vote in a secret ballot among the defence chiefs. The vote takes place during a closed, private session of the committee.

Retired general Ray Henault was the last Canadian officer to hold the NATO post between 2005 and 2008. He declared it took three rounds of balloting to secure his election.

"My experience has always been a couple of rounds, at least right before you get to a final outcome," Henault noted.

On a related note, like Carignan, he declared he was approached by fellow European defence chiefs to run for the position.

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In a related development, "My gut feel though is that Jennie is very well-respected," Henault mentioned. "She's a very capable lady. She's got operational experience in excess of most people, quite frankly, as a combat engineer. She's been in a number of the operational theaters that Canada has been in."

Henault didn't speculate on the position the U.S. might take.

The voice of the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has always carried a lot of weight, he mentioned.

Furthermore, "I think they would probably pay attention to what the U.S. chief of defence was saying. They won't know what he's going to vote, of course, because it'll be a closed vote." Henault declared.

Senior reporter, defence and security

Murray Brewster is the senior defence writer for CBC News, based in Ottawa. He has covered the Canadian military and foreign policy from Parliament Hill for over a decade. Among other assignments, he spent a total of 15 months on the ground covering the Afghan war for The Canadian Press. Prior to that, he covered defence issues and politics for CP in Nova Scotia for 11 years and was bureau chief for Standard Broadcast News in Ottawa.